National Weather Service: Arctic Cold, Wintry Mix Possible Dec. 8, 2016

Articles Nws Arctic Update 12 07 16

The National Weather Service is advising residents to be prepared for the first arctic intrusion in almost two years across North and Central Texas.

Please use the City’s WeatherBug technology found on the home page for the latest conditions in your Arlington neighborhood.

After highs mostly in the 50s today, temperatures tonight will tumble quickly with lows Thursday morning ranging between 25 to 30 degrees northwest areas, to between 30 to 35 degrees southeast areas. Highs on Thursday will only be in the 30s area wide.

A weak upper disturbance will track across mainly Central Texas between midnight and noon Thursday, December 8, 2016. Moisture profiles will not be optimal for precipitation generation as the cold air is moving into the area.

There will be enough to possibly generate low chances for a light drizzle or rain, mixing with, or briefly changing over to light freezing drizzle or freezing rain mixed with light sleet across areas generally south of I-20 and west of I-35/I-35W towards daybreak Thursday morning.

Areas further east should be above freezing when or if any light precipitation falls. In addition, a warmer than normal Fall has resulted in warm ground temperatures still in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Threats/Hazardous Weather Types

The threats/hazardous weather types are (in order of likelihood):

  • Frigid Temperatures (Tonightthrough Friday morning)
  • Blustery North winds starting tonightand continuing Thursday. Wind chills starting in the teens/lower 20s Thursdaym., and 20s/lower 30s southeast Thursday afternoon. Wind speeds diminish rapidly Thursday evening.
  • Light icing on elevated surfaces (southwest counties).

Areas of Concern

The primary areas we are concerned about are:

  • Arctic Air: Everywhere
  • Wintry Mix (no snow): South of I-20, west of a line from Waxahachie, to Waco, to Temple/Belton.

Expected Timing

Cold and rainy conditions are expected to be present from midnight to mid-morning on Thursday. Cold temperatures are expected to persist through the end of the workweek.

Forecast Confidence

Our forecast confidence level for this forecast is medium confidence.

FAQ

  • Is wintry precipitation guaranteed? No.
  • Will all surfaces see accumulations if wintry precipitation does occur? No. Ground temperatures are in the upper 40s/lower 50s, so only elevated surfaces would be affected.
  • Is there going to be an Winter Advisory or Warning? No. Confidence of the event occurring and impacts are too low at this time.
  • What time period should we be most concerned about? Between midnight and mid morning Thursday.
  • How cold will it get? How long will it last? Highs Thursday will struggle into the 30s, with lows Friday morning mid teens to lower 20s. Highs in the upper 30s/lower 40s Friday. Weekend will warm back up with the 50s on Saturday and the 60s Sunday.

Bottom Line

It will get cold across the entire area. The possibility for light icing on elevated surfaces is possible for a few hours late tonight and early Thursday. Any impacts will be quite localized.

Alternate Possibilities

What we are certain of:

  • The first arctic air intrusion in almost 2 years
  • Bluster (windy) conditions from the north
  • Wind chills in the teens and 20s by early Thursday
  • Only very light precipitation amounts, if any falls at all
  • Impacts of wintry precipitation limited to elevated surfaces

What we are not certain about:

  • Moisture available for precipitation
  • Exact locations of light drizzle.

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